In-depth Council Election Analysis 2026: What has been going on in politics?

In England we have the “first-past-the-post” election system where the winner takes all. This is a system that historically benefitted the two-party system. You either voted Tory or you voted Labour and the one that got the most members elected won the election. 

This meant that the “big” Political Parties were coalitions in their own right. The Tories swallowed up Libertarians, one nation Tories, some Liberals, centre right and even far right. Labour swallowed up the centre left, Liberals, socialists, far left and at times even communists. 

But over the past few years that changed dramatically and smaller parties started making inroads. It is remarkable how what was once upon a time a very rigid electoral system is reflecting the diverse views of the public. 

Many parts of the world – and especially in Europe electoral systems are proportional – i.e. every man and his dog can stand and get votes from much larger geographic areas and thereby garner enough support to get elected representation. 

The question is, what has led to this emergence of this much more diversified election results? 

The answer to that is modern media and in particular social media. 

In the olden days, the big Parties had the money and resources to print leaflets and knock on doors to garner their support. 

Now the smaller parties with fewer resources can campaign on a level playing field and in some cases, even better than the established big Parties. Anyone with a smart phone can reach thousands of voters with the click of a button and an eye-catching post.

This has led to the emergence of the populist elements in politics. We have all seen them in action – the very simple headline grabbing message that is easy to understand and support. This then lead to voters supporting them at elections. 

WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENED AT THESE ELECTIONS? 

NO OVERALL CONTROL – the real winners. 

It is simple really – the “we don’t like any of you” Party and No Overall Control won the elections hands down… by a country mile. 

This now means that a lot of horse trading will go on behind the scenes. The biggest political grouping will have the first bite at the cherry to form a coalition to run the Council. 

This however, may not be quite as simple. Over the past few years we have seen “Rainbow coalitions” that made very strange bedfellows. Many of them weren’t necessarily united by ideology but more by their hatred of the Conservative Party. 

At this election, there will be elements of united against the Labour Party. 

This will be particularly true in places where the Conservative and Reform seats are enough to form a majority and I can see situations where many councils will be run by a dark blue and light blue coalition. 

But don’t be surprised if you see coalitions where Reform and Green end up together – both Parties have made commitments to prevent development on the green and pleasant land of England… 

Note that there is no limit on how many Parties/Independents can club together to get a majority to run the Council and there really will be rainbows all over the country. 

We will update you over the next few weeks on how these negotiations progress and what sort of coalitions emerge in the vast swathes of grey on the map. 

CONSERVATIVES – Is spring and a revival on the way? 

The Tories saw their vote implode further in some places – especially at County Councils. This doesn’t necessarily have a very big impact on planning matters as they are not the Planning Authorities but do look after education, highways, flooding etc. Do also remember that these County Councils have their days numbered and this was the last set of elections (that you may remember was cancelled and then uncancelled). 

However, it is worth noting that historically, the Tories recovery always starts in London – and indeed they didn’t do too badly in London taking back Westminster Council and getting very close in Enfield, Barnet, Wandsworth and Croydon (indeed, Croydon’s directly elected Mayor is a Tory so it will be a Tory administration). Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon were targets for Reform and they had virtually no impact there at all with the Tory vote increasing in Bromley and Hillingdon and Bexley is still safe Tory. 

NOTE: Despite the headlines, the Tories are still the second largest party in Local Government with 3,855 Councillors across the Country.

LABOUR – in a death-spiral? Not quite!

London might have been a bit depressing for Labour losing control of some of the Councils but we have seen this before. In fact in 2006 Labour lost control of places like Camden and Ealing where they held on this time. 

Further afield - particularly in the North they did suffer heavy losses to Reform in their heartlands – Wakefield, Barnsley, St Helens, Sunderland etc. 

However, Labour will have to get themselves sorted out and get their messaging better – most of the Labour Councillors who lost last week lost on national issues – not local ones. 

NOTE: It was bad but it could have been worse, and it is worth pointing out that they still have the largest number of Councillors in Local Government with 4,631 Councillors.

LIBDEMS – The Country is paved with gold. 

The LibDems are doing incredibly well and even though they didn’t get that many headlines in this election, they continued their steady rise. A simple look at the political map will show you vast swathes of gold. 

They somewhat unexpectedly won East Surrey with a huge majority (not even they expected that) and are staring to make inroads in the North (Stockport) but their home is the South and South West where they are the dominant force in Local Government. 

NOTE: The LibDems are the third largest in Local Government with 3,361 Councillors. 

REFORM UK – Eating Conservative and Labour one bite at a time? 

Reform is the curious element here and we all are going to have to get our heads around how they function and how to deal with Reform PDQ. There is no denying that they have made spectacular inroads, but it needs to be measured. They may have won control of 13 Councils that are LPAs at this election (for context Labour won eight in London alone). 

Reform is however in a very strong second place on many councils and could end up in coalitions power sharing with other Parties. 

It is worth noting that they are not really making much inroads in the South (yet) and they only picked up two Councils in the South – Havering and Thurrock. Yes, they also picked up lots of seats on County Councils but those are almost irrelevant as they are set to vanish soon. 

The real impact is in the North in safe Labour areas such as Wakefield, Barnsley, St Helens, Sunderland etc. 

NOTE: Reform is on 2,363 Council seats (roughly half are former Tories) – despite that they control only 17 Planning Authorities. 

GREEN PARTY – Green like a chameleon? 

There is no doubt that the Greens performed REALLY well last week. They did particularly well against Labour in the South (and particularly in London). 

But they are everywhere and they aren’t just a protest any more. The Greens is a very serious prospect now and they have added to the Councils they control in Hackney, Lewisham, Waltham Forest and in places like Barnet and Enfield they hold the balance of power and will be king makers. 

Outside London, they performed very well in Birmingham, Oxford, Cambridge, Sheffield, Leeds, etc  and they took control of Hastings in Kent (where the County is run by Reform) and Norwich (Norfolk is under No Overall Control, but Reform has almost half the seats) . 

In contrast with Reform who performed extremely well in the North and less well in the South, the Greens performed quite well across the Country.  

NOTE:  The Greens now have 1,314 Councillors across the Country. 

CONCLUSION – Is first-past-the-post the problem? 

Our voting system dates from the early 18th century and used to deliver stability but is it still delivering that stability? 

One of the inevitable consequences of our voting system is that it really does nurture tribalism in politics. It is not geared to governance by consensus it is effectively doing the opposite. 

Perhaps it is time to adopt a proportional electoral system where coalitions (even Rainbow coalitions) become the norm. 

What will this achieve? Well, it will achieve something that will be happening in a lot of places almost by accident where diverse Parties need to negotiate their diverse ideologies and beliefs and election promises to deliver consensus governance. 

With corporate responsibility will come much needed stability and lead to better decision making.