Planning in Focus – what’s in store on the 1st May?
The local government elections taking place in May this year are predominantly dominated by County Councils – large shire authorities across England. These councils were last contested in 2021, which feels like a lifetime ago. Boris Johnson was still Prime Minister and the conservatives were riding high in the polls following the Coronavirus pandemic response. Much has changed in the last four years, and we are seeing a political landscape that almost no one would have predicted back in 2021.
One prediction that I am confident in making is that the Conservatives are likely to have a set of damaging election results this year. Following on from their historic losses in the General Election last year, the Conservatives are not seeing a rebound in their prospects. Especially considering, that the areas up for election this year are the areas they have been historically strong in. Of the 22 Councils up for election in May, all but 3 elected a Conservative majority last time. I can’t see that happening this time.
Conservative results to watch out for:
Buckinghamshire
Gloucestershire
Shropshire
Now, if the Conservatives are to do badly, you’d think that Labour as their primary challengers would be the main beneficiary, but that’s unlikely. Labour are not riding high in the national polls and these council areas have never been strongholds for the Labour Party. For Labour to come out of these elections well, they need to hold the seats they have and not lose to the insurgency of Reform UK which is threatening both Labour and Conservatives councillors across the Country.
Labour results to watch out for:
Durham
Reform UK, the new(ish) kids of the block, are running a record number of candidates (99% of all seats contested) which will mean that that nearly all voters this time will have the chance to vote for this party. They are positioning themselves as the anti-establishment party against the mainstream political parties. Reform UK are likely to have a good election in general, but the biggest problem any new political party has is understanding the ground game and maximising turnout. Will this party be able to make significant breakthroughs, in the right areas, to turn their national polling into significant results? It’s still far too early to tell how they will do: they could take a number of councils on a good night if they target their resources, but if they fall into the trap of spreading too thinly then they could find themselves with not much to show on the 2nd of May.
Reform results to watch out for:
Kent
Lincolnshire
The Lib Dems (and I must declare my own bias here) potentially have the opportunity here to cause a serious upset in local government elections. The councils up this year are in the much talked about Blue Wall and the Lib Dems under Ed Davey’s leadership want to knock the last tory strongholds out from underneath them. The Lib Dems have learnt from many election defeats to target their efforts relentlessly, the party is famed for their ground game and turning out numbers of campaigners that other parties struggle to. If the Lib Dems can repeat the performance, they has in the 2024 General Election they could quite easily flip a large number of councils this year.
Lib Dem results to watch out for:
Wiltshire
Cornwall
Devon
The Green Party could do well this year, with antipathy towards the Labour Government the Greens have been campaigning hard to their left to pull in support. Unfortunately, the councils this year aren’t the natural areas of strength for the Greens. Saying that, I do think the Greens could pick up a good number of seats and play pivotal roles in coalition arrangements that follow. I’m not predicting that the Greens will take any of the Councils this year, but I would not be surprised to see a larger number of Green Deputy Leaders of Councils after May.
This year’s May elections are likely to be a very interesting set of results. The Conservatives are likely to take big losses, from attacks from both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats, they could find themselves squeezed out. I am also predicting a lot of No Overall Control results as well this year, and as a result a large number of coalition arrangements. We’ve seen ABC (anything but Conservatives) coalitions popping up across the country in previous years, and I am expecting this year to be similar. However, if Reform pull in the numbers how will they change the playbook? Will they work with the Conservatives?
Sufficed to say, the political landscape across England will be very different once the final results are announced on May 2nd. Get in touch with the CCP and we can help you detangle and analyse how your site fits into the new landscape you find yourselves in. Planning is political and it is essential to fully understand what makes the local politicians tick.
