As the dust settles…
It’s often a cliché to suggest in politics that we live in interesting times. Well, now it’s true. A round of local elections that have taken on an almost exceptional level of importance. The results from dozens of elections and thousands of seats with hundreds of voters in each seat has had an almost unique impact on a national politics and government. For a government with such a large majority to be blown off course by hundreds of votes cast for local candidates has few comparisons.
Of course, the big news was Reform UK’s performance. Coming from nowhere to gain a number of major councils and Metro Mayors. The consequence of this, of course, has been an almost meltdown in the Conservative’s heartlands: the shire counties. And sneaking in behind all the fuss, the Liberal Democrats. Winning the second largest number of seats although way behind Reform.
So, what was the context for these results? Council seats last fought in 2021 when the Conservatives were riding high. Prime Minister Johnson was credited with the country’s response to Covid. This time the Conservatives were half as popular nationally than in 2021. And Labour were facing the electorate for the first time since the General Election and a series of unpopular policy decisions including, for many, the loss of the Winter Fuel Allowance. Reform UK was little more than twinkle in Nigel Farage’s eye (they were founded in January 2021) in 2021. What was unique about this election was two parties of the right fighting each. We have got used to competiting parties on the left. This was something very different and in that battle Reform won and the Conservatives lost.
So what can we put the Reform success down to? Extraordinary, they managed to field more candidates than any other party. The is remarkable for a party with so little local organisational base. They weren’t short of money. Thousands of postal voters received a letter from Nigel Farage and their campaign was highly centralised and professional. But much more than this, Reform tapped in to ever growing disenchantment with traditional parties and politics and a growing anger among some people. I certainly have never encountered so many angry and aggressive people on the door step. And, frankly, the anti-immigration rhetoric is powerful with many people and overrides considerations of local issues or local campaigners.
What does this mean for local councils and policy? There is little doubt that Reform UK councillors will want to focus on financial efficiencies. I’m not sure if local councils that have been cut to the bone in recent years will provide huge rewards and it is likely that there will be attempts to push back on policies designed to address net zero and climate change. I suspect many enthusiastic Reform councillors might be disappointed by how little they can affect these policies moving forward.
On planning. Well, promoting renewable energy will be harder. On housing, well, Reform UK say they will ‘unleash housebuilding across the country’. They want fast track planning and tax incentives for brownfield sites and ‘loose fit planning’ policy for large residential development with pre-approved guidelines and developer requirement. Sounds a bit like the Government’s planning policies.
Moving forward, there will be a lot of administrations, led by Reform, who will be short of experience. This could lead to more officer led councils or delays in decision-making. How will they get on with the Conservatives? They were at each other’s throats during the campaign. However, early signs suggest that alliances will be forged if required.
We certainly live in interesting times and only time will tell what real impact the Reform advance will have.