Reform UK cannot be ignored
Reform is politically the grandchild of UKIP and the child of the Brexit Party. And all of those political parties emerged from Nigel Farage’s political dogma. Nigel Farage of course is a public school educated, former city trader who grew up as a high Tory and cut his political teeth in the Conservative Party. The Nigel we see on TV with the fag in one hand and the pint of bitter in the other is all part of his public persona to appeal to a certain part of the electorate.
That part of the electorate is predominantly what is known as “C2” the voters who voted Mrs Thatcher in. These voters are also quite nationalistic; they are also the target audience for charities who work for very worthy causes that deals with domestic issues like former service personnel, coast guard, animals etc.
But what Nigel did is to go further to appeal to Tories who are looking at the mess that was left behind the last parliament and had lost faith in what the Conservative Party is offering. He is presenting them with an alternative that looks a bit like the “old” Tory Party that they supported. Those voters in Shropshire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire and Kent – all traditionally safe Conservative areas have embraced Reform as some of what they say resounds with them. These are all also Brexit leaning areas and the “conservative message” that Reform is using in these places are gaining traction.
This is in sharp contrast with traditionally more Labour areas like Durham, Doncaster and Teeside where Reform presented themselves as a Party for those voters. These are places where the electorate feels that the Labour Party who once stood for their values no longer represents those views. These are areas that have been suffering since the 80s with economic decline after the coal and steel industry and again, Brexit promised a plethora of implied promises of jobs and general prosperity. There is no doubt that a large part of this is the message that Reform is peddling about immigration. The whole image of Nigel the ordinary bloke with a pint in one hand and a fag in the other appeals to these voters – they feel they can relate to him.. He is approachable and one of them.
Note that I have so far only focussed on Nigel Farage because Reform IS Nigel Farage and Nigel Farage IS Reform. If you go back many decades the British Electorate had a Party that they supported on ideological grounds but then in the 1980s our elections became a lot more “Presidential” this came sharply into focus in 1983 where the electorate was essentially asked to choose between Mrs Thatcher, the hero of the Falklands or worthy (but very boring and slightly dishevelled Mr Foot), again in 92 the question was do you want trusted Mr Major of Mr Kinnock who fell in the ocean… 97 the question was do you want the charismatic Mr Blair or grey-dull-boring Mr Major… 2010 It was eloquent Mr Cameron or dour Mr Brown, 2019 it was Mr Johnson off the Telly or Mr Corbyn who was going to hand the country to the Socialists.
The reality is that both the Labour and Conservative Parties are ideologically quite close and therefore when a charismatic Leader comes along (i.e. Mr Farage) who communicates his messages in short, sharp terms that resounds with the public sentiment and contrasts with the political establishment, that Leader will gain traction. But, as we have seen with UKIP and the Brexit Party the moment Mr Farage leaves the Parties collapse. Admittedly both those Parties were one-trick-polies fixated on Brexit and Reform is more focussed on Immigration. Although, with Mr Starmer hosting an EU Summit and talking about a new Brexit deal that will only contribute to Reform growing in popularity in some quarters.
From the election on 1 May, it is also curious to see how Reform really didn’t have much of a breakthrough in other parts of the Country like Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire, Wiltshire etc. This is due to the fact that in those places the alternative to Labour and the Conservatives are presented by the LibDems.
There is no doubt that while Mr Farage is in charge of Reform, they will keep on growing and there is a very real possibility that Reform could overtake the Conservatives at the next General Election to the point where Labour, LibDems, Greens and anyone else who is “progressive” in their politics may have to form a coalition to keep him out of Downing Street.
What does this all mean for planning matters?
Reform had a manifesto commitment at the 2024 General Election that they would bring in key changes within 100 days, including the promise to abolish the Section 24 tax system for landlords, which was introduced in 2015 and prevented landlords from tax deducting finance costs and mortgage interest from tax on rental income. They also pledged to “restore landlords’ rights” to attract greater investment in the private rented sector – thus increasing much-needed rental supply.
Reform promised to protect leaseholders and ensure all potential charges to both leaseholders and freehold residents are “clearly stated and consented to” and promised to make it cheaper and easier to extend leases to 990 years and buy freeholds.
Mr Farage also promised to raising the tax-free personal allowance to £20,000, change the higher-rate income tax bracket threshold to £70,000, and scrap stamp duty on all home purchases up to £750,000 and reduce the rates for more expensive properties. An inheritance tax overhaul was also mooted; the party wants to scrap the tax for estates worth £2m or less.
Reform is already making headlines when it comes to housing. Since taking control of 10 councils on 1 May, they vowed to use “every instrument of power” to resist housing people seeking asylum in areas where it now controls councils. A simple glance at their election literature for the elections just past on 1 May will reveal that they are very anti-development of new homes and even more in the renewable energy sector.
On the renewable and sustainable energy sources, Reform deputy leader, Richard Tice said they would impose taxes on the renewable energy sector and plans to scrap the country's net zero target.
Mr Tice argued net-zero policies were to blame for higher energy bills and deindustrialisation in the UK. He said renewable energy was a "massive con" and promised Reform would recover money paid in subsidies to wind and solar companies.
"The British people are being ripped off by the renewables industry," Tice told a news conference. He suggested a "generation tax" and a "special corporation tax" would cover the costs of government funding for renewable energy.
Mr Tice added that "The British people need to know there is a direct link between the cost of all these subsidies to the vested interests in the renewables industry and your bills," Reform's deputy leader Mr Tice said "we will scrap net stupid zero" if the party won the next general election.
Whether you agree with them or not or if you agree with them or not is really neither here nor there. They have a mandate in a number of places and they will be using it to represent what they believe they have been elected to do. It will need careful handling and engagement to guide their views to be more pragmatic about planning and development. This may very well become a new norm and my advice would certainly be to start adapting. They are likely to go up in popularity and in the polls and there could very well be another set of elections in 2026 and 2027 where their cote share and number of Councillors and Mayors are likely to increase.
Although, I will remind you that there is an Achilles’ Heel for Reform… It is a Party centred very heavily around the popularity of one person and there are some big fish that are getting elected. This mixed with Mr Farage’s love of foreign travel may very well result in some unrest amongst other ambitious people who have joined Reform.
What would Reform look like if Mr Farage departs and say someone like Andrea Jenkyns were to become leader?
One thing that remains constant is that they are in power in many places and we will have to respect the democratic mandates and work with them as best we can.
Henry